Stoke City vs Burnley – Match Report

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Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Stoke City 0-2 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.94 xG and Burnley 0.93 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 0.67, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 33% | Draw 35% | Burnley 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Burnley 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.27 PPG, Burnley 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights