Stoke City vs Burnley – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
35%
2.88
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.87
0.93
Burnley xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.93 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.