Stoke City 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Stoke City take on Burnley.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stoke City welcome Burnley to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Burnley's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Stoke City) versus 1.90 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stoke City, 1 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Burnley winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stoke City in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Burnley in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Burnley 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.94 xG and Burnley 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.063 / defence 1.079 | Burnley attack 0.835 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.030. Burnley's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Stoke City games / 17 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stoke City 33% | Draw 35% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Burnley 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 70% | Burnley 30%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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