Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stoke City at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Blackburn meet at Bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 42). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Stoke City have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Blackburn's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Stoke City against 1.50 for Blackburn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Stoke City, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Blackburn — Blackburn have 2 wins, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Stoke City an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stoke City 40% | Blackburn 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.47 xG and Blackburn 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.149 / defence 1.015 | Blackburn attack 0.856 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Data: built from Stoke City's last 87 games and Blackburn's last 87.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 45% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.21 | Draw 3.30 | Blackburn 4.09. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Stoke City 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stoke City 60% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 45% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Stoke City 1.47 / Blackburn 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.149 / def 1.015 | Blackburn attack 0.856 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Blackburn xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Blackburn kick off?
Stoke City vs Blackburn kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Stoke City 1 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Stoke City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Blackburn part of?
Stoke City vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 45% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stoke City and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stoke City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (1.15) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.86x) against Stoke City's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 87 games and Blackburn's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.30
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.50
1.03
Blackburn xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.03 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 87 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 27W 24D 36L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 31W 20D 36L from 87 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Stoke City against 1.30 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 43 home games (17W 14D 12L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 15W 8D 20L from their last 43 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.03 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Stoke City (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 27W 24D 36L in their last 87 games (1.21 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 20D 36L in their last 87 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Blackburn away?
Stoke City's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.51 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Blackburn in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won Stoke City 0-3 Blackburn on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 6, Blackburn have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Blackburn 1-2 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 54%, Blackburn 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stoke City) and 40% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Blackburn in 33%; Stoke City have failed to score in 28% of games; Blackburn in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stoke City's recent matches and 37% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stoke City's recent games and 40% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stoke City's recent matches and 60% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stoke City and Blackburn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Stoke City and Blackburn drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.47 xG and Blackburn 1.03 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 45% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 24%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 40%, Blackburn 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.21 PPG, Blackburn 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 42
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →