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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Southampton and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Southampton and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.45 xG and Charlton 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 60%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights