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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sat 21 Feb 2026

15:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Southampton Win

51%

Southampton

1.96

29%

Draw

3.47

20%

Charlton

4.96

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

15.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

2 – 0

10.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.26

0.81

Charlton xG

51%
29%
20%
SouthamptonDrawCharlton

1.96

51%

Home win

3.47

29%

Draw

4.96

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.29

56%

BTTS No

1.77

Clean Sheet

44%

Southampton

2.26

24%

Charlton

4.25

Win to Nil

23%

Southampton

4.42

5%

Charlton

21.10

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.4 8.5 3.5 0.9 0.2
1 15.1 12.3 5.0 1.4 0.3
2 10.9 8.9 3.6 1.0 0.2
3 5.3 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 0.6 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.448
λ Away (xG) 0.815
Total xG 2.263
League avg home goals 1.296
League avg away goals 1.175
Southampton attack strength 0.922
Southampton defence strength 0.872
Charlton attack strength 0.796
Charlton defence strength 1.211
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 32 / 32