Southampton 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Southampton at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Southampton face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Mary's Stadium plays host to Southampton versus Charlton in Championship (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Southampton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Southampton at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Southampton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Southampton, 1.20 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Southampton, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Southampton 5–1 Charlton — a Southampton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Southampton half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 63% versus Charlton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 60% | Charlton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 1.45 xG and Charlton 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 0.922 / defence 0.872 | Charlton attack 0.796 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.175. Charlton's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Southampton's projected output up. Charlton's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Southampton's last 32 games and Charlton's last 32.
Result probabilities: Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 1.96 | Draw 3.47 | Charlton 4.96. Southampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Southampton at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Southampton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Southampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Southampton vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Southampton 1.45 / Charlton 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Southampton attack 0.922 / def 0.872 | Charlton attack 0.796 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Southampton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Southampton xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Charlton xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Southampton vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Southampton vs Charlton kick off?
Southampton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Charlton?
Southampton 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Southampton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium.
What competition is Southampton vs Charlton part of?
Southampton vs Charlton is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Southampton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Southampton a 51% chance of winning, Charlton a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Southampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Southampton and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Southampton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Southampton's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.80x) against Southampton's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Southampton's last 32 games and Charlton's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Southampton Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.47
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Southampton xG
Total xG
2.26
0.81
Charlton xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Southampton vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Southampton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Southampton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Southampton and 0.81 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Southampton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Southampton have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 14W 16D 40L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 32W 18D 20L from 70 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Southampton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Southampton have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 34 home games (8W 8D 18L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 11W 9D 14L from their last 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Southampton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.27 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Southampton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charlton in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Southampton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Southampton (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Southampton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Southampton vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Southampton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Southampton have gone 14W 16D 40L in their last 70 games (0.83 PPG), while Charlton have gone 32W 18D 20L in their last 70 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Southampton at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Southampton at home: 0.94 PPG; Charlton away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Southampton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Southampton have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Charlton in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Southampton and Charlton, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Southampton
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Southampton vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Charlton?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Southampton have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Southampton and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Southampton 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Southampton and Charlton?
Southampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Southampton 53%, Charlton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Southampton) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 35%; Southampton have failed to score in 35% of games; Charlton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Southampton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Southampton vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Southampton and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Southampton's recent matches and 38% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Southampton and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Southampton's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Southampton and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Southampton's recent matches and 53% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Southampton and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Southampton and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.45 xG and Charlton 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 60%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Southampton's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 33
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →