Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 3D 3L at The Valley — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Portsmouth (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Charlton against 1.30 for Portsmouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus Portsmouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Portsmouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.20 xG and Portsmouth 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.764 / defence 0.927 | Portsmouth attack 0.677 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.154. Charlton's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Charlton games / 76 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 21%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Portsmouth 4.76. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Portsmouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Charlton 1.20 / Portsmouth 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.764 / def 0.927 | Portsmouth attack 0.677 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Charlton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Portsmouth xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 1 - 3 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 46% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Record (7 meetings): Charlton 3W | Draws 3 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.76x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.68x) against Charlton's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 31/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.03
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.93
0.72
Portsmouth xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Charlton and 0.72 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 34W 20D 22L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 22W 21D 33L from 76 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Portsmouth.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 2.03 PPG from 37 outings (22W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 5W 10D 22L from 37 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 20D 22L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 22W 21D 33L in their last 76 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Charlton's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.03 PPG; Portsmouth away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Charlton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Charlton
3
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Portsmouth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charlton) and 54% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Portsmouth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 54% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charlton's recent games and 54% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Charlton 1-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.20 xG and Portsmouth 0.72 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Portsmouth attack 0.68 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 46% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 21%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Portsmouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Portsmouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Portsmouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.