Rotherham 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rotherham face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
QPR travel to AESSEAL New York Stadium to take on Rotherham in Championship (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rotherham have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Rotherham at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, QPR have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rotherham 0.80 PPG, QPR 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Rotherham have won 1, QPR 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Rotherham 3–1 QPR — a Rotherham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rotherham trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
QPR trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 51% versus QPR 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.46 xG and QPR 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 1.025 / defence 0.986 | QPR attack 0.755 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.219. QPR's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Rotherham's last 59 games and QPR's last 60.
Result probabilities: Rotherham 50% | Draw 27% | QPR 23%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.00 | Draw 3.76 | QPR 4.27. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rotherham 70% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 15 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 50% | Draw 27% | QPR 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Rotherham 1.46 / QPR 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 1.025 / def 0.986 | QPR attack 0.755 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
0.91
QPR xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rotherham vs QPR FAQs
What time does Rotherham vs QPR kick off?
Rotherham vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs QPR?
Rotherham 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Rotherham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs QPR part of?
Rotherham vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 50% chance of winning, QPR a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rotherham and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Rotherham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 1.02x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rotherham's last 59 games and QPR's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.76
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.37
0.91
QPR xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
18.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rotherham vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rotherham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Rotherham and 0.91 for QPR, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham come into this having played 59 games, going 13W 20D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 0.98 PPG from 59 outings (15W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 1.00 PPG, QPR on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rotherham's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Rotherham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.92 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Blended
QPR
Blended
Rotherham (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rotherham
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Rotherham vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Rotherham and QPR in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 13W 20D 26L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while QPR have gone 15W 13D 31L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or QPR away?
Rotherham's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.41 PPG; QPR away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rotherham's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rotherham
2
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Rotherham vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and QPR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rotherham have won 1, QPR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: QPR 2-1 Rotherham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 66%, QPR 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rotherham) and 48% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rotherham vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rotherham and QPR matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Rotherham's games and 45% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rotherham and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rotherham's matches and 48% of QPR's.
Do Rotherham and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Rotherham's recent matches and 66% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Rotherham and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.46 xG and QPR 0.91 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against QPR attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 50% | Draw 27% | QPR 23%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, QPR 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.00 PPG, QPR 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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