QPR 0-0 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Bristol City in Championship (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
QPR (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Bristol City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bristol City away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Bristol City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for QPR, 2 for Bristol City and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended QPR 0–2 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 49% versus Bristol City 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 51% | Bristol City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.96 xG and Bristol City 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.742 / defence 1.379 | Bristol City attack 0.887 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.224. QPR's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. QPR's defence rating of 1.379 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bristol City's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 61 games and Bristol City's last 61.
Result probabilities: QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.12 | Draw 3.84 | Bristol City 2.01. Bristol City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bristol City as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 50% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 16 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG QPR 0.96 / Bristol City 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.742 / def 1.379 | Bristol City attack 0.887 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bristol City xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does QPR vs Bristol City kick off?
QPR vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Bristol City?
QPR 0 - 0 Bristol City.
Where is QPR vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Bristol City part of?
QPR vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 24% chance of winning, Bristol City a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both QPR and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will QPR vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.89x) against QPR's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 61 games and Bristol City's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
24%
4.12
26%
3.84
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
QPR xG
Total xG
2.46
1.50
Bristol City xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for QPR and 1.50 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 61 games, going 15W 14D 32L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.31 PPG from 61 outings (21W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for QPR against 1.31 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 6W 6D 17L across their last 29 home games, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
QPR (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Bristol City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 14D 32L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Bristol City away?
Bristol City's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.83 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between QPR and Bristol City, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
4
Draws
2
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bristol City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 4, Bristol City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: QPR 0-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Bristol City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Bristol City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (QPR) and 38% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 41% of games; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 52% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of QPR's recent games and 38% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of QPR's recent matches and 69% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, as QPR and Bristol City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.96 xG and Bristol City 1.50 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.74 / defence 1.38 against Bristol City attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 51%, Bristol City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bristol City's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 0.97 PPG, Bristol City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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