QPR 0-0 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Bristol City in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
QPR (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 0W 2D 8L at MATRADE Loftus Road — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bristol City away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Bristol City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for QPR, 2 for Bristol City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Bristol City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 49% versus Bristol City 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 51% | Bristol City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.96 xG and Bristol City 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.742 / defence 1.379 | Bristol City attack 0.887 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.224. QPR's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 QPR games / 61 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Bristol City 2.00. Bristol City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bristol City as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: QPR 50% | Bristol City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG QPR 0.96 / Bristol City 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.742 / def 1.379 | Bristol City attack 0.887 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bristol City xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Bristol City kick off?
QPR vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Bristol City?
QPR 0 - 0 Bristol City.
Where is QPR vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Bristol City part of?
QPR vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 24% chance of winning, Bristol City a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both QPR and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bristol City?
Record (4 meetings): QPR 2W | Draws 0 | Bristol City 2W.
What form are QPR and Bristol City in?
QPR (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Bristol City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.89x) against QPR's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
24%
4.12
26%
3.84
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
QPR xG
Total xG
2.46
1.50
Bristol City xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for QPR and 1.50 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 61 games, going 15W 14D 32L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.31 PPG from 61 outings (21W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for QPR against 1.31 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 6W 6D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Bristol City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 14D 32L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Bristol City away?
Bristol City's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.83 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
4
Draws
2
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Bristol City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when QPR 0-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Bristol City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Bristol City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (QPR) and 38% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 41% of games; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Bristol City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 52% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of QPR's recent games and 38% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Bristol City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, as QPR and Bristol City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.96 xG and Bristol City 1.50 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.74 / defence 1.38 against Bristol City attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 24% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 50%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 51%, Bristol City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bristol City's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 0.97 PPG, Bristol City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.