West Brom 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Brom face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
West Brom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
West Brom at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hull City have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for West Brom, 1 for Hull City and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended West Brom 0–2 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 50% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 40% | Hull City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.955 / defence 0.788 | Hull City attack 1.126 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.219. West Brom have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from West Brom's last 60 games and Hull City's last 60.
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.56 | Draw 3.53 | Hull City 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: West Brom 60% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 15 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG West Brom 1.21 / Hull City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.955 / def 0.788 | Hull City attack 1.126 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hull City xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Hull City FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.95) and Hull City's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.13x) against West Brom's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 60 games and Hull City's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.53
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Hull City xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for West Brom and 1.08 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 17D 19L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (20W 21D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for West Brom against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Hull City
Blended
West Brom (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.80 PPG; Hull City away: 1.27 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hull City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between West Brom and Hull City, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won West Brom 5-2 Hull City on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 40%, Hull City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (West Brom) and 50% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Hull City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of West Brom's recent matches and 53% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of West Brom's recent games and 50% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of West Brom's recent matches and 63% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 3-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Hull City attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Hull City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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