West Brom 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hull City have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 50% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 40% | Hull City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.955 / defence 0.788 | Hull City attack 1.126 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.219. West Brom's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 West Brom games / 60 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Hull City 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 60% | Hull City 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG West Brom 1.21 / Hull City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.955 / def 0.788 | Hull City attack 1.126 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hull City xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
Record (4 meetings): West Brom 3W | Draws 0 | Hull City 1W.
What form are West Brom and Hull City in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.95) and Hull City's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.13x) against West Brom's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.53
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Hull City xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for West Brom and 1.08 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 17D 19L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (20W 21D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for West Brom against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (9W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.80 PPG; Hull City away: 1.27 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hull City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 40%, Hull City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (West Brom) and 50% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Hull City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of West Brom's recent matches and 53% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of West Brom's recent games and 50% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hull City in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 3-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Hull City attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Hull City 33%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Hull City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.