QPR 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
QPR's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for QPR, 1.20 for Swansea — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for QPR, 3 for Swansea and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2025, ended QPR 1–0 Swansea — a QPR win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 56% | Swansea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.75 xG and Swansea 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.228 / defence 1.246 | Swansea attack 0.905 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.170. QPR's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 89 games and Swansea's last 89.
Result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.17 | Draw 3.79 | Swansea 3.64. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG QPR 1.75 / Swansea 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.228 / def 1.246 | Swansea attack 0.905 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: QPR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Swansea FAQs
What time does QPR vs Swansea kick off?
QPR vs Swansea kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Swansea?
QPR 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is QPR vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Swansea part of?
QPR vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 46% chance of winning, Swansea a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both QPR and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.23x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.91x) against QPR's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 89 games and Swansea's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.79
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
QPR xG
Total xG
3.07
1.32
Swansea xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for QPR and 1.32 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 30W 24D 35L from 89 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 37L across 89 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for QPR against 1.33 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 17W 11D 16L from their last 44 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 13W 7D 24L across their last 44 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.15 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Swansea in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 30W 24D 35L in their last 89 games (1.28 PPG), while Swansea have gone 33W 19D 37L in their last 89 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Swansea away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Swansea away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between QPR and Swansea, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won QPR 5-0 Swansea on 24 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
2
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Swansea?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 4, Swansea have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: QPR 5-0 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Swansea 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (QPR) and 48% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Swansea matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 43% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of QPR's matches and 48% of Swansea's.
Do QPR and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of QPR's recent matches and 66% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat QPR 1-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.75 xG and Swansea 1.32 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.23 / defence 1.25 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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