Cardiff 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cardiff at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 45 sees Birmingham travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Birmingham stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Birmingham's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cardiff 1.30 PPG, Birmingham 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 0 for Birmingham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Birmingham in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 50% versus Birmingham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | Birmingham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and Birmingham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.788 / defence 1.151 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / defence 1.725. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.155. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.725 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Cardiff games / 44 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 27%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Birmingham 3.70. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 30% | Birmingham 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 46% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Cardiff 1.43 / Birmingham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.788 / def 1.151 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / def 1.725 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Birmingham xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Birmingham kick off?
Cardiff vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Cardiff 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Cardiff vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Birmingham part of?
Cardiff vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 46% chance of winning, Birmingham a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cardiff and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Birmingham in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Birmingham xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.01 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 14W 7D 23L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 20L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.11 PPG, Birmingham on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 7W 3D 12L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 14W 7D 23L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Birmingham away?
Cardiff's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.09 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Birmingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cardiff's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cardiff
2
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Birmingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Birmingham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2024, when Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Birmingham?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 36%, Birmingham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cardiff) and 50% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 50% of games; Birmingham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cardiff's recent games and 50% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Birmingham tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Birmingham finished level at 1-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and Birmingham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Birmingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.73, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 46% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 27%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 54%, Birmingham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.11 PPG, Birmingham 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Birmingham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.