Sunderland 3-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Birmingham make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadium of Light — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sunderland. A 0.80 PPG lead over Birmingham (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sunderland 2W, Birmingham 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Birmingham — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 56% versus Birmingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 57% | Birmingham 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.73 xG and Birmingham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.116 / defence 1.068 | Birmingham attack 0.718 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.224. Data: 61 Sunderland games / 61 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Birmingham 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | Birmingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.73 / Birmingham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.116 / def 1.068 | Birmingham attack 0.718 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Birmingham xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Birmingham kick off?
Sunderland vs Birmingham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Sunderland 3 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Sunderland vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Birmingham part of?
Sunderland vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 56% chance of winning, Birmingham a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Birmingham?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 2W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Birmingham in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.72x) against Sunderland's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.23
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Birmingham xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
4%
27.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 16D 20L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.18 PPG from 61 outings (19W 15D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sunderland against 1.18 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sunderland's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 25W 16D 20L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Birmingham away?
Sunderland's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.47 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Birmingham in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 3, Birmingham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Birmingham 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Birmingham?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 60%, Birmingham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sunderland) and 40% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sunderland's recent matches and 47% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Sunderland's recent games and 40% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Birmingham tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Birmingham 3-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.73 xG and Birmingham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Birmingham attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 57%, Birmingham 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.49 PPG, Birmingham 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.