Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 47%, yet in-form Swansea provide a compelling counter-argument — this Portsmouth vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Swansea at Fratton Park in Championship (matchday 37). Kick-off is Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Portsmouth have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Swansea have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swansea — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Swansea and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2025, ended Portsmouth 0–1 Swansea — a Swansea win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | Swansea 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.30 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.870 / defence 0.856 | Swansea attack 0.763 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.217. Swansea's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 81 games and Swansea's last 82.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 47% | Draw 32% | Swansea 21%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.14 | Draw 3.14 | Swansea 4.68. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Swansea (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 47% | Draw 32% | Swansea 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Portsmouth 1.30 / Swansea 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.870 / def 0.856 | Swansea attack 0.763 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Swansea xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Swansea kick off?
Portsmouth vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is Portsmouth vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Swansea part of?
Portsmouth vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 47% chance of winning, Swansea a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Portsmouth and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Portsmouth vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 0.87x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 81 games and Swansea's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.14
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
Swansea xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.80 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 81 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 24W 22D 35L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Swansea's form line: 31W 17D 33L from 81 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.16 PPG, Swansea on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 39 home games (17W 10D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Swansea have gone 11W 6D 22L from their last 39 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.15 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Swansea in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 22D 35L in their last 81 games (1.16 PPG), while Swansea have gone 31W 17D 33L in their last 81 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Swansea away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.56 PPG; Swansea away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Swansea in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jan 2025, when Portsmouth won Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Swansea?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 2, Swansea have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 51%, Swansea 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Portsmouth) and 49% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Portsmouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Swansea in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 44% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Portsmouth's recent games and 49% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 64% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.30 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Swansea attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 81/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 47% | Draw 32% | Swansea 21%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.16 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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