🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Portsmouth have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Derby (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Derby arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Derby and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Derby 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Derby 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.855 / defence 0.955 | Derby attack 1.120 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.196. Data: 82 Portsmouth games / 83 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 60% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights