Portsmouth 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Derby and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Derby 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.855 / defence 0.955 | Derby attack 1.120 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.196. Data: 82 Portsmouth games / 83 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 60% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Portsmouth 1.17 / Derby 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.855 / def 0.955 | Derby attack 1.120 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
Record (7 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 6 | Derby 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.85) and Derby's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.12x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.09
30%
3.32
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Derby xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.28 for Derby, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 24W 22D 36L from 82 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 34L across 82 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.27 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 17W 10D 13L from 40 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 12W 9D 19L across 40 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 22D 36L in their last 82 games (1.15 PPG), while Derby have gone 28W 20D 34L in their last 82 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Derby away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
From 9 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 52%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Portsmouth) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Portsmouth's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portsmouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Portsmouth's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Derby tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Portsmouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.15 PPG, Derby 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.