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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.30 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Swansea attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 81/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 47% | Draw 32% | Swansea 21%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.16 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights