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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Portsmouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Hull City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.18 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights