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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Portsmouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derby's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.15 PPG, Derby 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights