Portsmouth 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in Championship (matchday 38). Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Derby and 6 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Portsmouth 1–1 Derby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Derby 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.855 / defence 0.955 | Derby attack 1.120 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.196. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 82 games and Derby's last 83.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.09 | Draw 3.32 | Derby 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 38 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Portsmouth 1.17 / Derby 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.855 / def 0.955 | Derby attack 1.120 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.85) and Derby's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.12x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 82 games and Derby's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.09
30%
3.32
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Derby xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.28 for Derby, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 24W 22D 36L from 82 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 34L across 82 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.27 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 17W 10D 13L from their last 40 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 12W 9D 19L across their last 40 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 22D 36L in their last 82 games (1.15 PPG), while Derby have gone 28W 20D 34L in their last 82 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Derby away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Portsmouth and Derby, the earliest from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won Derby 4-0 Portsmouth on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 52%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Portsmouth) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Portsmouth's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Portsmouth and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Portsmouth's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 65% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Portsmouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.17 xG and Derby 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.15 PPG, Derby 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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