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Portsmouth and Derby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 42, as Portsmouth and Derby drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.66 xG and Derby 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Derby attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 60% | Draw 24% | Derby 16%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Derby 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.63 PPG, Derby 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights