🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Portsmouth have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.

Derby (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Derby have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Derby and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Derby winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 60% | Derby 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.66 xG and Derby 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.042 / defence 0.925 | Derby attack 0.806 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.991. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Portsmouth games / 41 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Portsmouth 60% | Draw 24% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 50% | Derby 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights