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Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Charlton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Charlton 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Charlton 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 46% | Draw 32% | Charlton 23%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Portsmouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights