Portsmouth 2-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in Championship, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Portsmouth's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portsmouth have posted 3W 3D 4L at Fratton Park — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Charlton (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Portsmouth against 0.80 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Charlton have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Portsmouth's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Charlton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Charlton 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.870 / defence 0.960 | Charlton attack 0.704 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.159. Data: 68 Portsmouth games / 22 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 46% | Draw 32% | Charlton 23%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 4.35. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 46% | Draw 32% | Charlton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Portsmouth 1.23 / Charlton 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.870 / def 0.960 | Charlton attack 0.704 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Charlton xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Charlton kick off?
Portsmouth vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Portsmouth 2 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Portsmouth vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Charlton part of?
Portsmouth vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 46% chance of winning, Charlton a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Portsmouth and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Record (6 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 3 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Charlton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.87) and Charlton's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.70x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 68/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.15
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.01
0.78
Charlton xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.78 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portsmouth come into this having played 68 games, going 19W 19D 30L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.62 PPG from 68 outings (31W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Portsmouth's home form reads 15W 10D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.20 points per game from 35 outings (11W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charlton's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portsmouth are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.26 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 19W 19D 30L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Charlton have gone 31W 17D 20L in their last 68 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Charlton away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.57 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Charlton in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
3
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 51%, Charlton 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Portsmouth) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Charlton in 34%; Portsmouth have failed to score in 29% of games; Charlton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 37% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Portsmouth's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Charlton tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charlton in 49% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Charlton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Charlton 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Charlton 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 46% | Draw 32% | Charlton 23%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Portsmouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.