Portsmouth 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Portsmouth face Birmingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Birmingham at Fratton Park in Championship (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Portsmouth have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Birmingham — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Birmingham have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Portsmouth at 1.40 PPG versus Birmingham's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Portsmouth have won 0, Birmingham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Portsmouth 0–4 Birmingham — a Birmingham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Portsmouth trading profile (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | Birmingham 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Portsmouth surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Birmingham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.33 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.900 / defence 0.853 | Birmingham attack 0.721 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.204. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 91 games and Birmingham's last 45.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 19%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.04 | Draw 3.14 | Birmingham 5.22. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Birmingham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 46 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Portsmouth 1.33 / Birmingham 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.900 / def 0.853 | Birmingham attack 0.721 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Birmingham xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Birmingham kick off?
Portsmouth vs Birmingham kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Birmingham?
Portsmouth 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Portsmouth vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Birmingham part of?
Portsmouth vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 49% chance of winning, Birmingham a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Portsmouth and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Portsmouth vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.90) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 91 games and Birmingham's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.14
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.07
0.74
Birmingham xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.74 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 28W 24D 39L from 91 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 51W 21D 19L across 91 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Birmingham by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Portsmouth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 19W 12D 14L from their last 45 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 20W 9D 16L across their last 45 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.54 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 28W 24D 39L in their last 91 games (1.19 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 51W 21D 19L in their last 91 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Birmingham away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.53 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Birmingham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Birmingham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 0, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Portsmouth 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 49%, Birmingham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Portsmouth) and 47% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Portsmouth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 53% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Portsmouth's recent games and 47% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 80% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 46, as Portsmouth and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.33 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Birmingham attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 19%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 46
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →