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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Portsmouth and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 46, as Portsmouth and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.33 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Birmingham attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 19%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Birmingham's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights