Hull City 1-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hull City haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bristol City haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bristol City are 0.50 PPG clear of Hull City in recent Championship fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Bristol City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bristol City — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 63% versus Bristol City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 59% | Bristol City 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.55 xG and Bristol City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.057 / defence 1.041 | Bristol City attack 0.915 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.198. Data: 46 Hull City games / 46 Bristol City games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hull City 47% | Draw 25% | Bristol City 28%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Bristol City 3.57. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bristol City (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Bristol City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 47% | Draw 25% | Bristol City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Hull City 1.55 / Bristol City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.057 / def 1.041 | Bristol City attack 0.915 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Hull City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bristol City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Bristol City kick off?
Hull City vs Bristol City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Hull City 1 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Hull City vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Bristol City part of?
Hull City vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 47% chance of winning, Bristol City a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hull City and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
Record (6 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 2 | Bristol City 3W.
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hull City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.92x) against Hull City's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.69
1.14
Bristol City xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hull City and 1.14 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 13D 14L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. Hull City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.35 PPG from 46 outings (17W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. Bristol City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Hull City against 1.35 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 8W 9D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.15 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Pre-Season
Bristol City
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 19W 13D 14L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Bristol City away?
Hull City's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.43 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bristol City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won 5-0 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hull City
4
Draws
5
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Bristol City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Hull City 2-3 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bristol City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 61%, Bristol City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hull City) and 44% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Bristol City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hull City's games and 52% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hull City's recent games and 44% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Bristol City tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Bristol City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Hull City and Bristol City drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.55 xG and Bristol City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Bristol City attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 47% | Draw 25% | Bristol City 28%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 59%, Bristol City 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.52 PPG, Bristol City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.