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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 34, as Plymouth and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.49 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.51 against Cardiff attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.99 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights