Norwich 1-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Swansea travel to Carrow Road to take on Norwich in Championship (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Norwich have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Norwich have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swansea stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Swansea have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Norwich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Norwich, 4 for Swansea and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Norwich 1–2 Swansea — a Swansea win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Norwich in-play and half-time data (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play and half-time data (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 62% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 50% | Swansea 48%). Note also that Swansea surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Norwich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.31 xG and Swansea 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.944 / defence 0.973 | Swansea attack 0.938 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.179. Data: built from Norwich's last 90 games and Swansea's last 90.
Result probabilities: Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.48 | Draw 3.24 | Swansea 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Norwich 50% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Norwich 1.31 / Swansea 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.944 / def 0.973 | Swansea attack 0.938 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Norwich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Swansea xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Swansea kick off?
Norwich vs Swansea kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Swansea?
Norwich 1 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Norwich vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Swansea part of?
Norwich vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 40% chance of winning, Swansea a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Norwich and Swansea will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Norwich vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Norwich's attack at 0.94x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 90 games and Swansea's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.24
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.39
1.08
Swansea xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Norwich and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Norwich and 1.08 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norwich's recent record stands at 33W 22D 35L from 90 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 37L across 90 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 1.34 PPG, Swansea on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 19W 10D 16L from their last 45 home games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 14W 7D 24L across their last 45 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Norwich (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Norwich vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Swansea in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 33W 22D 35L in their last 90 games (1.34 PPG), while Swansea have gone 34W 19D 37L in their last 90 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Swansea away?
Norwich's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.49 PPG; Swansea away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jan 2025, when Norwich won Norwich 5-1 Swansea.
Norwich's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Norwich
2
Draws
5
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Swansea?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 2, Swansea have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Swansea 2-1 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 67%, Swansea 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Norwich) and 49% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Swansea matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Norwich's games and 44% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Norwich and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Norwich's recent games and 49% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Norwich's recent matches and 67% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norwich and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich and Swansea finished level at 1-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.31 xG and Swansea 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 50%, Swansea 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.34 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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