Norwich 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Norwich at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norwich at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby (all games): 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Norwich. A 1.00 PPG lead over Derby (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Norwich's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Norwich's games and 70% of Derby's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Norwich, 0 for Derby and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Norwich 3–2 Derby — a Norwich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 59% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 57% | Derby 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 2.76 xG and Derby 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.608 / defence 1.175 | Derby attack 0.838 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.046. Norwich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.608 — their 2.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Derby's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Norwich's projected output up. Data: built from Norwich's last 76 games and Derby's last 30.
Result probabilities: Norwich 73% | Draw 16% | Derby 11%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.37 | Draw 6.35 | Derby 9.01. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (73%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.76 / 1.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Norwich's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Norwich 80% (last 10 home games) | Derby 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 73% | Draw 16% | Derby 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Norwich 2.76 / Derby 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.608 / def 1.175 | Derby attack 0.838 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Norwich (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Derby xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Derby FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Derby kick off?
Norwich vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Derby?
Norwich 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Norwich vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Derby part of?
Norwich vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 73% chance of winning, Derby a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Norwich and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Norwich vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norwich's attack at 1.61x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.84x) against Norwich's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 76 games and Derby's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.35
11%
9.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Norwich xG
Total xG
3.79
1.03
Derby xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.35
16%
Draw
9.01
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
6%
15.77
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
1%
142.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Norwich and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Norwich and 1.03 for Derby, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norwich's recent record stands at 31W 19D 26L from 76 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 35W 14D 27L across 76 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Norwich against 1.57 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 21W 10D 6L from their last 37 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Norwich are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 8D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.45 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Norwich (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Norwich vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Derby in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 31W 19D 26L in their last 76 games (1.47 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 14D 27L in their last 76 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Derby away?
Norwich's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.97 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Norwich or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norwich have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Norwich and Derby, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Norwich have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norwich won Derby 0-4 Norwich on 3 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Norwich
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Derby?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Norwich and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Derby 0-4 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Derby?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 65%, Derby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Norwich) and 49% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Norwich's games and 51% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Norwich and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Norwich's recent games and 49% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Norwich's recent matches and 68% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norwich and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 31, as Norwich and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.76 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.61 / defence 1.18 against Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 76/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 73% | Draw 16% | Derby 11%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 57%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.47 PPG, Derby 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 31
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →