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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Millwall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Millwall 0-2 at The Den, Semi-finals, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.52 xG and Hull City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 39%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Millwall's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Millwall 1.61 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights