Millwall 0-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Millwall's overall Championship record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den.
Hull City (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Millwall's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Hull City, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Hull City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 46% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 39% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.52 xG and Hull City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.086 / defence 0.873 | Hull City attack 1.034 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.210. Data: 92 Millwall games / 92 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Hull City 3.85. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Hull City lead the H2H ledger, but Millwall carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 50% | Hull City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Semi-finals | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Millwall 1.52 / Hull City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.086 / def 0.873 | Hull City attack 1.034 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hull City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 11 May 2026 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 0 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Semi-finals fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 46% chance of winning, Hull City a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
Record (9 meetings): Millwall 1W | Draws 4 | Hull City 4W.
What form are Millwall and Hull City in?
Millwall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.09) and Hull City's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.03x) against Millwall's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.48
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
Hull City xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Millwall and 1.09 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 42W 24D 27L from 93 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 24D 36L across 93 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Millwall against 1.32 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 25W 7D 14L from 46 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 17W 10D 19L across 46 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 42W 24D 27L in their last 93 games (1.61 PPG), while Hull City have gone 33W 24D 36L in their last 93 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.78 PPG; Hull City away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Millwall or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 39%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Millwall) and 48% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hull City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Millwall's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Millwall's recent games and 48% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Hull City tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hull City in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Millwall 0-2 at The Den, Semi-finals, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.52 xG and Hull City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 39%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.61 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.