Swansea 1-4 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 22 as Swansea welcome Nottingham Forest to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Swansea — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 4W 4D 2L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium.
Across all Championship games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.60 PPG versus Nottingham Forest's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 48% versus Nottingham Forest 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 57% | Nottingham Forest 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.99 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.047 / defence 1.089 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.991 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.090. Data: 21 Swansea games / 21 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 29% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 38%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Nottingham Forest 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 40% | Nottingham Forest 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 29% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Swansea 0.99 / Nottingham Forest 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.047 / def 1.089 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.991 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Nottingham Forest xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Swansea vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Nottingham Forest?
Swansea 1 - 4 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Swansea vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Swansea vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 29% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Swansea and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Nottingham Forest?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Nottingham Forest in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swansea's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.07
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.17
1.18
Nottingham Forest xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Swansea and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Swansea and 1.18 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea's recent record stands at 7W 6D 8L from 21 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 7L across 21 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.29 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Swansea's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.60 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Swansea or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Nottingham Forest runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Nottingham Forest 5-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 40%, Nottingham Forest 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 40% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Swansea's recent matches and 60% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swansea's recent games and 40% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Swansea 1-4 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.99 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 29% | Draw 33% | Nottingham Forest 38%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 57%, Nottingham Forest 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.29 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.