Leicester 1-3 QPR – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Leicester at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leicester face QPR.

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Full Analysis

King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus QPR in Championship (matchday 38). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Leicester have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Leicester's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leicester are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

QPR's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

QPR's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Leicester, 0.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, QPR edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Leicester 1–4 QPR — a QPR win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 61% and QPR 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | QPR 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.39 xG and QPR 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.984 / defence 1.264 | QPR attack 0.742 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.197. QPR's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Leicester's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Leicester's last 37 games and QPR's last 83.

Result probabilities: Leicester 42% | Draw 29% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.40 | Draw 3.41 | QPR 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 70% (last 10 home games) | QPR 50% (last 10 away games).

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