🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Portsmouth at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Portsmouth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

QPR host Portsmouth at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

QPR — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

QPR's home record at Loftus Road: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — QPR are significantly better at Loftus Road than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Championship this season, Portsmouth have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.00 PPG, Portsmouth 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Portsmouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, QPR have won 0, Portsmouth 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

QPR in-play and half-time data (83 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (83 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 61% versus Portsmouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 57% | Portsmouth 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.56 xG and Portsmouth 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.054 / defence 1.429 | Portsmouth attack 0.937 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.177. Data: 84 QPR games / 83 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 37%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Portsmouth 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Portsmouth 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights