Leeds 7-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Cardiff in Championship (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Leeds (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Leeds have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Leeds are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Cardiff have posted 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Leeds. A 0.80 PPG lead over Cardiff (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Leeds edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Leeds 2–0 Cardiff — a Leeds win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leeds goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 37% versus Cardiff 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 48% | Cardiff 48%). Note also that Cardiff surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Leeds recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 2.37 xG and Cardiff 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.422 / defence 0.609 | Cardiff attack 1.136 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Leeds carry an above-average attack rating of 1.422 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leeds's projected output up. Leeds have a tight defence (rating 0.609), which is pulling Cardiff's projected output down. Data: built from Leeds's last 75 games and Cardiff's last 75.
Result probabilities: Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.36 | Draw 5.79 | Cardiff 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Leeds's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leeds 30% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Leeds 2.37 / Cardiff 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.422 / def 0.609 | Cardiff attack 1.136 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Leeds (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Cardiff xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leeds vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Leeds vs Cardiff kick off?
Leeds vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Cardiff?
Leeds 7 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Leeds vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Cardiff part of?
Leeds vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 74% chance of winning, Cardiff a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leeds and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Leeds vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leeds's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Cardiff's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.14x) against Leeds's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Leeds's last 75 games and Cardiff's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
74%
1.36
17%
5.79
9%
11.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Leeds xG
Total xG
3.08
0.71
Cardiff xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
11.11
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
118.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leeds vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Leeds and 0.71 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leeds come into this having played 75 games, going 45W 17D 13L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.24 PPG from 75 outings (26W 15D 34L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Leeds carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Leeds's home form reads 29W 4D 4L across their last 37 home games, a 2.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leeds are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
Leeds (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leeds
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Leeds vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Leeds and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 45W 17D 13L in their last 75 games (2.03 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 26W 15D 34L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Cardiff away?
Leeds's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.46 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Leeds or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Cardiff in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Leeds have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leeds won Leeds 7-0 Cardiff on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leeds
1
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Leeds vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Cardiff?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leeds have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Leeds and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Leeds 7-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Cardiff?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 38%, Cardiff 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leeds) and 54% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Cardiff in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leeds vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leeds and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Leeds's recent matches and 57% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leeds and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leeds's matches and 54% of Cardiff's.
Do Leeds and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Leeds's recent matches and 73% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leeds run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Cardiff 7-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.37 xG and Cardiff 0.71 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.42 / defence 0.61 against Cardiff attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 48%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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