Hull City 1-2 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Stoke City travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The MKM Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stoke City's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Hull City have won 2, Stoke City 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Stoke City in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 59% versus Stoke City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Stoke City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.851 / defence 1.230 | Stoke City attack 0.785 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Data: 75 Hull City games / 75 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Stoke City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Stoke City lead the H2H ledger, but Hull City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 70% | Stoke City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Hull City 1.21 / Stoke City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.851 / def 1.230 | Stoke City attack 0.785 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stoke City xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Stoke City kick off?
Hull City vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Hull City 1 - 2 Stoke City.
Where is Hull City vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Stoke City part of?
Hull City vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Stoke City a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hull City and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Stoke City?
Record (7 meetings): Hull City 2W | Draws 1 | Stoke City 4W.
What form are Hull City and Stoke City in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Stoke City (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.29
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.21
1.00
Stoke City xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hull City and 1.00 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 26W 21D 28L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stoke City's form line: 21W 22D 32L from 75 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.32 PPG, Stoke City on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.14 PPG from 37 outings (9W 15D 13L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 9W 9D 19L from 37 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 26W 21D 28L in their last 75 games (1.32 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 21W 22D 32L in their last 75 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Stoke City away?
Hull City's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.14 PPG; Stoke City away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Hull City or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Stoke City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Stoke City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 38% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 27% of games; Stoke City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 38% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Stoke City tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Stoke City attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Stoke City 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.