Ipswich 3-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ipswich welcome Swansea to Portman Road in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ipswich stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ipswich at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Swansea have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Swansea away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 2.00 PPG, Swansea 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Ipswich hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Swansea and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Ipswich 4–1 Swansea — a Ipswich win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Ipswich and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Ipswich in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 60% versus Swansea 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Swansea 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.64 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.174 / defence 0.826 | Swansea attack 0.816 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.188. Data: built from Ipswich's last 32 games and Swansea's last 80.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 56% | Draw 27% | Swansea 17%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.78 | Draw 3.68 | Swansea 5.97. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Ipswich 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 40% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 56% | Draw 27% | Swansea 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Ipswich 1.64 / Swansea 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.174 / def 0.826 | Swansea attack 0.816 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Swansea xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Swansea kick off?
Ipswich vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Swansea?
Ipswich 3 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Ipswich vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Swansea part of?
Ipswich vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 56% chance of winning, Swansea a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ipswich and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Ipswich vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 32 games and Swansea's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.68
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.44
0.80
Swansea xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
3%
30.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.80 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 20W 19D 31L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Swansea's form line: 27W 14D 29L from 70 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.13 PPG, Swansea on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 34 home games (11W 9D 14L).
On the road, Swansea have gone 10W 6D 18L from their last 34 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.19 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Ipswich (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Ipswich vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Swansea in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 20W 19D 31L in their last 70 games (1.13 PPG), while Swansea have gone 27W 14D 29L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Swansea away?
Ipswich's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.24 PPG; Swansea away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Swansea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ipswich have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won Swansea 1-4 Ipswich.
Ipswich's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ipswich
0
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Swansea?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 4, Swansea have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Ipswich 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Swansea?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Swansea see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Swansea 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ipswich) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Ipswich have failed to score in 26% of games; Swansea in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ipswich's recent matches and 47% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ipswich and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ipswich's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Ipswich's recent matches and 59% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Swansea 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.64 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Swansea attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 56% | Draw 27% | Swansea 17%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Swansea 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.13 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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