🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Swansea 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.64 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Swansea attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 56% | Draw 27% | Swansea 17%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Swansea 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Swansea's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.13 PPG, Swansea 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights