Hull City 2-2 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Middlesbrough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Middlesbrough make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Hull City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Hull City have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Middlesbrough have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Middlesbrough away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Hull City against 2.00 for Middlesbrough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2023, ended Hull City 2–1 Middlesbrough — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Middlesbrough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 57% versus Middlesbrough 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Middlesbrough 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.11 xG and Middlesbrough 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.868 / defence 1.027 | Middlesbrough attack 1.129 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.192. Data: built from Hull City's last 86 games and Middlesbrough's last 87.
Result probabilities: Hull City 30% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 43%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.30 | Draw 3.74 | Middlesbrough 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Middlesbrough 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 30% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hull City 1.11 / Middlesbrough 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.868 / def 1.027 | Middlesbrough attack 1.129 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Middlesbrough FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Hull City vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Hull City 2 - 2 Middlesbrough.
Where is Hull City vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Middlesbrough part of?
Hull City vs Middlesbrough is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 30% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hull City and Middlesbrough will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hull City vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.87x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (1.13x) against Hull City's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 86 games and Middlesbrough's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.74
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.50
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hull City and 1.38 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 86 games, going 31W 26D 29L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.57 PPG from 86 outings (40W 15D 31L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Hull City against 1.57 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 16W 13D 14L across their last 43 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 43 away games (18W 6D 19L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.59 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Middlesbrough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Middlesbrough Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 26D 29L in their last 86 games (1.38 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 40W 15D 31L in their last 86 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Middlesbrough away?
Hull City's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.42 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won Hull City 1-4 Middlesbrough on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hull City
1
Draws
5
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Middlesbrough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Middlesbrough?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 4, Middlesbrough have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Middlesbrough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 39% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Middlesbrough 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 70% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Middlesbrough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Middlesbrough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hull City's games and 67% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Middlesbrough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 70% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Middlesbrough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hull City's recent matches and 77% of Middlesbrough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Middlesbrough finished level at 2-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.11 xG and Middlesbrough 1.38 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Middlesbrough attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 30% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 43%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Middlesbrough 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.38 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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