Hull City 3-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and QPR meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hull City, 1.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hull City, 3 for QPR and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.89 xG and QPR 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.913 / defence 1.090 | QPR attack 0.800 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. QPR's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 87 Hull City games / 88 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | QPR 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Hull City 0.89 / QPR 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.913 / def 1.090 | QPR attack 0.800 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: QPR (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.01
QPR xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs QPR kick off?
Hull City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs QPR?
Hull City 3 - 0 QPR.
Where is Hull City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs QPR part of?
Hull City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 31% chance of winning, QPR a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hull City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
Record (5 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 1 | QPR 3W.
What form are Hull City and QPR in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. QPR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.91) and QPR's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.80x) against Hull City's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 87/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
31%
3.24
32%
3.16
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.91
1.01
QPR xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Hull City and 1.01 for QPR, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 31W 27D 29L from 87 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 40L across 87 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Hull City against 1.11 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 15W 14D 14L from 43 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 14W 11D 18L across 43 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and QPR in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 27D 29L in their last 87 games (1.38 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 22D 40L in their last 87 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or QPR away?
Hull City's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.37 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, QPR have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 30%; Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and QPR tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, QPR in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat QPR 3-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.89 xG and QPR 1.01 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against QPR attack 0.80 / defence 0.73, drawn from 87/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.38 PPG, QPR 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.