Hull City 0-0 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coventry at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Coventry encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coventry make the trip to MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship (matchday 41). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coventry (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Coventry have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Coventry are 1.20 PPG clear of Hull City over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hull City's last 10 home games and Coventry's last 10 away games) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coventry in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Hull City edge it 3 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Hull City 0–0 Coventry — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Coventry — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Coventry 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Coventry 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Coventry have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 48% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.28 xG and Coventry 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.120 / defence 1.317 | Coventry attack 1.327 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.194. Coventry have an above-average attack rating of 1.327, which lifts their away xG to 2.09. Hull City's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Coventry's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 86 games and Coventry's last 86.
Result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 23% | Coventry 55%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.54 | Draw 4.33 | Coventry 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.28 / 2.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Coventry's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Coventry 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, matchday 41 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 23% | Coventry 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Hull City 1.28 / Coventry 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.120 / def 1.317 | Coventry attack 1.327 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Coventry (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Coventry xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Coventry FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Coventry kick off?
Hull City vs Coventry kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Coventry?
Hull City 0 - 0 Coventry.
Where is Hull City vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Coventry part of?
Hull City vs Coventry is a Championship fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 22% chance of winning, Coventry a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hull City and Coventry will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (1.12) and Coventry's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coventry's attack (1.33x) against Hull City's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 86 games and Coventry's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
22%
4.54
23%
4.33
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.37
2.09
Coventry xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
12%
8.06
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
3%
36.56
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Coventry Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hull City and 2.09 for Coventry, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Coventry?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City's recent record stands at 32W 20D 34L from 86 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Coventry, meanwhile, have gone 44W 18D 24L across 86 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Hull City against 1.74 for Coventry. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 15W 11D 17L from their last 43 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coventry's away record stands at 16W 12D 15L across their last 43 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.71 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Coventry
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Coventry (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Coventry
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Coventry Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Coventry in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 32W 20D 34L in their last 86 games (1.35 PPG), while Coventry have gone 44W 18D 24L in their last 86 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Coventry away?
Coventry's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.30 PPG; Coventry away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Hull City or Coventry been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Coventry in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Coventry — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hull City
5
Draws
1
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Coventry H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Coventry?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 4, Coventry have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Coventry last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Coventry 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Coventry?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 63%, Coventry 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Hull City) and 51% (Coventry).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Coventry Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Coventry matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hull City's games and 58% of Coventry's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Coventry matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Hull City's recent games and 51% of Coventry's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Coventry matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hull City's recent matches and 74% of Coventry's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Coventry finished level at 0-0 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.28 xG and Coventry 2.09 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Coventry landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 1.32 against Coventry attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 22% | Draw 23% | Coventry 55%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Coventry 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coventry's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Coventry 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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