Coventry 3-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Derby at Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coventry — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Coventry at Coventry Building Society Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coventry at 2.20 PPG versus Derby's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coventry, 2 for Derby and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 5–3 with Coventry winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 56% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 58% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.62 xG and Derby 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.264 / defence 0.833 | Derby attack 1.097 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.193. Coventry carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 85 Coventry games / 85 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 4.17. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coventry offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coventry 50% | Derby 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Coventry 1.62 / Derby 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.264 / def 0.833 | Derby attack 1.097 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Coventry (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Derby kick off?
Coventry vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Derby?
Coventry 3 - 2 Derby.
Where is Coventry vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Derby part of?
Coventry vs Derby is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 49% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Coventry and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Coventry 1W | Draws 2 | Derby 2W.
What form are Coventry and Derby in?
Coventry (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Derby (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coventry's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.71
1.09
Derby xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
5%
20.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Coventry and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Coventry and 1.09 for Derby, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 43W 18D 24L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 30W 20D 35L from 85 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Coventry are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coventry have posted 2.07 PPG from 42 outings (27W 6D 9L).
On the road, Derby have gone 13W 9D 20L from 42 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Derby in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 43W 18D 24L in their last 85 games (1.73 PPG), while Derby have gone 30W 20D 35L in their last 85 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Derby away?
Coventry's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 2.07 PPG; Derby away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Coventry or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derby in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coventry go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Coventry's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coventry
2
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Coventry have won 2, Derby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coventry 3-2 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 55%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Coventry) and 52% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Coventry's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coventry vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Coventry's matches and 52% of Derby's.
Do Coventry and Derby tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Derby 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Derby 3-2 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.62 xG and Derby 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Derby attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 49% | Draw 27% | Derby 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 58%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.