Hull City 2-3 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time.
Form
Hull City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hull City at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Bristol City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Hull City. A 1.00 PPG lead over Bristol City (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Bristol City, who have 4 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Hull City 2–4 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bristol City have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bristol City — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Bristol City 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 43% | Bristol City 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Bristol City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.15 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.908 / defence 1.040 | Bristol City attack 0.803 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.136. Data: built from Hull City's last 76 games and Bristol City's last 76.
Result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.57 | Draw 3.10 | Bristol City 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Hull City carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Hull City 1.15 / Bristol City 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.908 / def 1.040 | Bristol City attack 0.803 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bristol City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Bristol City kick off?
Hull City vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:01 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Hull City 2 - 3 Bristol City.
Where is Hull City vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Bristol City part of?
Hull City vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 39% chance of winning, Bristol City a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hull City and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Hull City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.80x) against Hull City's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 76 games and Bristol City's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.10
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.10
0.95
Bristol City xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hull City and 0.95 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 76 games, going 28W 19D 29L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.41 PPG from 76 outings (28W 23D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Hull City against 1.41 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 13W 10D 14L across their last 37 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 37 away games (9W 13D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 28W 19D 29L in their last 76 games (1.36 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Bristol City away?
Hull City's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.32 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Hull City and Bristol City, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bristol City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won Bristol City 5-0 Hull City on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hull City
4
Draws
5
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 1, Bristol City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Hull City 2-3 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 57%, Bristol City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 40% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 32% of games; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 40% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Hull City's recent matches and 68% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol City defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Hull City 2-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol City outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Bristol City attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.36 PPG, Bristol City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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