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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bristol City defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Hull City 2-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol City outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Bristol City attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.36 PPG, Bristol City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights