Fulham 3-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Swansea meet at Craven Cottage in Championship, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.11 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Craven Cottage.
Swansea have collected 1.11 PPG across 9 Championship outings this season: 2W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.78 PPG lead over Swansea (1.89 vs 1.11) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 67% versus Swansea 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Swansea 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.68 xG and Swansea 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.095 / defence 1.063 | Swansea attack 0.975 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.184. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Fulham games / 9 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 29% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Swansea 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Swansea 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 29% | Swansea 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Fulham 1.68 / Swansea 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.095 / def 1.063 | Swansea attack 0.975 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Swansea xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Swansea kick off?
Fulham vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Swansea?
Fulham 3 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Fulham vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Swansea part of?
Fulham vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, Swansea a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fulham and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Swansea in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Swansea (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.97x) against Fulham's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.43
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.91
1.23
Swansea xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fulham and 1.23 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea's form line: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Swansea have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Swansea in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Swansea in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Swansea have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Swansea away?
Fulham's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.75 PPG; Swansea away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fulham or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Swansea in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Swansea?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Swansea have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2022, when Swansea 1-5 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Swansea?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 50%, Swansea 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fulham and 75% for Swansea. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fulham's games and 75% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Swansea's.
Do Fulham and Swansea tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Swansea in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Swansea 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.68 xG and Swansea 1.23 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Swansea attack 0.97 / defence 1.48, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 29% | Swansea 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Swansea 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.