Cardiff 0-4 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Brom at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees West Brom travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 5W 4D 0L from 9 outings — 2.11 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.89. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's away record: 2W 2D 0L from 4 road trips in Championship this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour West Brom — 0.89 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.11 vs 1.22). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
West Brom in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 67% and West Brom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | West Brom 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.97 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.959 / defence 1.195 | West Brom attack 0.947 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.184. Data: 9 Cardiff games / 9 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 25% | Draw 32% | West Brom 43%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | West Brom 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Cardiff 75% | West Brom 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 25% | Draw 32% | West Brom 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Cardiff 0.97 / West Brom 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.959 / def 1.195 | West Brom attack 0.947 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: West Brom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.34
West Brom xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs West Brom kick off?
Cardiff vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Cardiff 0 - 4 West Brom.
Where is Cardiff vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs West Brom part of?
Cardiff vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 25% chance of winning, West Brom a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cardiff and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. West Brom (all comps): 5W-4D-0L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
25%
4.03
32%
3.11
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.31
1.34
West Brom xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.39
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.34 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 0L across 9 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Brom by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.78 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cardiff have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; West Brom in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while West Brom have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or West Brom away?
West Brom's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.00 PPG; West Brom away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Cardiff or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, West Brom in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and West Brom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cardiff
5
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, West Brom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cardiff at 75%, West Brom at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cardiff) and 50% (West Brom).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cardiff's games and 75% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cardiff's recent games and 50% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and West Brom tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, West Brom in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Cardiff 0-4 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.97 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.0 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 25% | Draw 32% | West Brom 43%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 56%, West Brom 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.