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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 29, as Derby and West Brom drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 28% | West Brom 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, West Brom 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights