🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Derby (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derby face West Brom.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 29 as Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

West Brom — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

West Brom away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Derby: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for West Brom, with 1 draws across those contests.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.

The historical record gives Derby a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Derby in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

West Brom in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus West Brom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | West Brom 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.880 / defence 1.089 | West Brom attack 0.818 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.149. Data: 74 Derby games / 74 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 28% | West Brom 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | West Brom 3.70. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 70% | West Brom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights