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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.03 xG and Swansea 0.81 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Swansea attack 0.78 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 38% | Draw 35% | Swansea 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 50%, Swansea 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Swansea's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights